Big trouble for the Bloc, bigger trouble for an independent Québec

Sitting in a waiting room at the hospital for eye problems, I listened to two strangers waiting behind me. I can’t see anything and so listening is all I can do that is stimulating. Within a volley of a few sentences, the strangers lament the state of the United States and notably, it’s unhinged, fascist, freakshow leader Donald Trump.

This isn’t bizarre. Donald Trump is on the lips of most people who I eavesdrop on these days (yes, even when I can see and I have no excuse to do this). Quebecers are Trump obsessed. Le Devoir’s weekend edition is a non-stop stream of Trump news. People here have Trump on their minds and he is overwhelmingly worrying them.

Even at the Facebook group for Quebecer snowbirds who stay in Florida, Trump seems to be on everyone’s mind. It takes no time to fall into a debate about the right-ward virage of that country. Under the first post I see, a man is selling a trailer for $95,000 and the comments explode with debates about how impossible it will be to sell it: “Unfortunately, it’s in Florida, Trump’s chateau fort and nothing there is selling right now” is perhaps the kindest comment there.

This should all be good news for the Bloc Québécois. My sense is that there is less support for Trump in Quebec than anywhere else in Canada, and with Canada’s sovereignty threatened by the Trump administration, it should be the Bloc’s moment to shine. Now is the time to assert our culture, identity and language against the Americans, right?

That isn’t how Quebecers have reacted. Polling has shown that the Liberals are the primary winner of Trump-driven fear. Quebecers are not running to the warm embrace of imagining an independent Quebec nation; they’re hoping to be saved by a guy who barely speaks French and seems like he’s never set foot off the Island of Montreal in all his previous trips to the province.

This trend was nearly immediate after Trump was sworn in. At the start of February, a poll from Leger clocked support for Quebec independence at its lowest in five years. This was a surprise, given that the over those past five years, the Parti Québécois rose from the ashes and had been riding the top of the polls. They were so confident that their leader, PSPP (we talk in acronyms here), threw around their promise to hold a referendum within the first 100 days of being elected. The talk was serious enough to create an internal debate near-crisis within Québec solidaire over what to do if that happens.

But Trump changed all that. His policies moved Quebecers to be more nationalistic, as in Canadian nationalistic, rather than Quebec nationalistic, and while the election hadn’t been called yet, support for both the provincial and federal liberals had bounded. This was especially surprising, given that the Liberals have been a non-entity in Quebec politics since their loss in 2018.

Now, with just two weeks left in the election, the Bloc is polling only slightly ahead of the Conservatives. Of the four federal parties with seats in Quebec, the Bloc has experienced the biggest drop in support.

Their support cannot be blamed on their campaign. They're doing everything right. Blanchet is a likable, personable leader (admittedly, the only one I’ve sat down with, though also the only federal leader who ever blocked me on Twitter). Before Carneymania, Blanchet was poised to snatch most of Quebec away from the other parties. They even stood be the official opposition again. Until things got hot and Quebecers got cold feet. The polls show that they ran back to the Liberal Party.

Quebecers are people who love to dream. It’s built into their DNA. As I joked with Blanchet when we met, if you sell Quebecers (and in particular, Quebecers where I live) a dream, it can carry your political fortunes for a long time. The Nordiques will come back. One day, we’ll have a world-class tramway in Quebec City. Whether via catapult, cable car or 10-kilometre tube (that looks more like a gerbil run than a highway) we will get our 3e lien to save us 10 minutes driving from the south shore to the north shore. We love to dream. Promise us a dream and we will give you our support. And there is no bigger dream than a Québec independent.

That is, until, reality hits and the dream evaporates. No, the Nordiques are never coming back (the market was absorbed by the Canadiens, there’s no reason for the NHL to expand here). No, we will never get that tramway (you will have to settle for even more busses). No, the 3e lien will never happen because it’s engineeringly impossible (it’s actually a hilarious joke orchestrated by our local trash radio community). No, an independent Quebec will never happen because it cannot only be dreams that build it.

The reality, and perhaps for some the irony, is that Quebecers do want a united Canada in the face of a hostile and aggressive United States. They do want an English speaking Prime Minister who can go toe-to-toe with Trump, pick up on his Anglo-Saxon humour, effortlessly kibitz. Even if they say they don’t, that’s what the polls show them saying. Only a fool would deny reality.

This is a disaster for the sovereignty movement (which I support). If sovereignty isn’t desired during a moment of difficulty, then it isn’t serious.

I’m writing this in English. If I were writing this in French, I would now pivot to what the left-wing sovereignty movement needs to do to build people’s confidence to support the project. This trend isn’t unmoveable. For all the negative outcomes of dreaming, there are even more positives. Just like, if I were writing this in French, I would explain why we will win a world-class tramway in Quebec, someday, as long as we do this, this and this.

But I’m not. I’m writing this in English, for an audience that mostly, likely, looks upon Quebec confounded and confused. It’s possible that the Bloc’s fortunes change between now and April 28. Indeed, among my friends, the vast majority are voting Bloc. But as it stands, for Quebecers to face an existential threat and not instinctively choose to fight it by asserting their own sovereignty, is an existential threat in and of itself to the movement for a Québec independent.